China’s Belt and Road Initiative: Is it Really Influencing the Geopolitical Landscape?

Abstract

The implication of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) on geopolitics is not fully understood. References to potential Chinese geopolitical influence from the BRI have been well explored. Academics, journalists, and government officials argue that China is able to influence the foreign policy decisions of other nations through debts incurred by participation in the BRI—debt trap diplomacy. The question that needs to be answered is, does quantifiable evidence show this correlation? My research addresses this question by studying UN resolutions representing the interests of China—as a metric of geopolitical influence—and how nations participating in the BRI voted on them. My thesis is that China’s BRI-related geopolitical influence is derived from preexisting alignments in foreign policy interests with the participants, not because of its investment in those states. Quantitative analysis shows that there is no correlation between BRI investments and changes to the foreign relation stances of the participants. Case studies demonstrate how China appears to be leveraging this preexisting alignment through the BRI to promote and gain consensus for its foreign interests. While China’s foreign agenda is broad, it is focused on areas of cooperation among nations and non-interference in domestic affairs. Finally, in assessing the BRI’s geopolitical influence potential, my research used a limited data set representing the foreign policy stances of the participants—a point which is expounded upon in the counter argument that BRI-participating nations act in opposition to China’s foreign relations interests if they do not align with their own.

Disciplines

International Relations | Political Science | Social and Behavioral Sciences

First Advisor

Chad Raymond

Date of Award

1-1-2023

Document Type

Dissertation

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