Navigating Geoeconomic Vulnerability: Canada as a Middle Power under Asymmetric Interdependence

Abstract

This dissertation examines how Canada, as a highly integrated middle power embedded in a continental hierarchy, can preserve strategic autonomy under conditions of intensified geoeconomic competition. It argues that geoeconomic vulnerability is not determined by trade dependence alone but by the interaction between structural exposure and domestic coordination capacity. Structural exposure is defined by export-market concentration and foreign ownership; coordination capacity by the ability of federal, provincial, and Indigenous governments to align policy across jurisdictions. The study introduces Geoeconomic Counter-Balancing (GCB), an adaptive strategy distinct from bandwagoning and hedging, through which middle powers restructure their exposure to coercion while preserving the gains of international economic integration.

The research design is mixed-methods and sectorally disaggregated, using the sector-year as the unit of analysis. Four sectors were selected for uniformly high trade dependence with variation in ownership and coordination capacity: steel, aluminum, oil and gas, and lumber. Quantitative analysis combines revealed comparative advantage, export-market concentration, foreign ownership, and tariff-shock simulation. A structured survey of 116 experts provides an independent qualitative assessment of coordination capacity. Vulnerability varies systematically across sectors. Export concentration governs how long vulnerability persists rather than how severe the initial shock is, and foreign ownership constrains autonomous recovery rather than shock magnitude, so the first hypothesis is supported in conditional form. Coordination capacity determines whether exposure becomes durable impairment. This is the study’s strongest result, corroborated by both methods. The interaction holds in direction, with magnitude varying by sector. Several modeled tariff scenarios were subsequently realized in the 2025 U.S. measures on Canadian steel and aluminum, lending the simulations external validity.

The dissertation contributes a unified analytical framework linking sectoral structure, foreign ownership, and institutional coordination to middle-power adaptation under asymmetric interdependence, reconceiving middle-power agency as a function of political-economic organization rather than diplomatic behavior. Treating Canada as a theory-building rather than an exceptional case, it argues that coordination capacity, not market access, is the decisive determinant of adaptive effectiveness.

Disciplines

Economic Theory | International Relations

Subject Area

Canadian studies; Economic theory; International relations

Department

International Relations (INR)

First Advisor

Buckman, Kirk

Second Advisor

MacFarlane, Stephen N.

Third Advisor

Correa da Cunha, Henrique

Date of Award

2026

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Ph.D.

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