Policy, Passion, and Probability: Coalition Warfare and Path Dependence In Afghanistan

Abstract

This dissertation examines the effects of national strategies on coalition burden sharing. It also examines the effects of fears of abandonment and fears of entrapment. Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) operations in Afghanistan provide a glimpse into the future of military coalitions. ISAF represented NATO’s first out-of-area operation conducted after the invocation of Article 5 of the NATO treaty. Prior research has focused on the political implications of alliances. Prior research also focused on how threat balancing and alliance dependence filtered through domestic prerogatives result in foreign policy decisions. Using a qualitative approach, this study examined the Americanization of efforts in Afghanistan between January 2009 and July 2011. The qualitative findings revealed that the policies of the nation’s contributing troops to ISAF converged and diverged. While security provided an overarching reason for nations to support ISAF, divergent interests and fears of entrapment limited the scope and scale of national commitments. The study also finds that fears of abandonment led the U.S. to commit more forces to Afghanistan. The results suggest that divergent interests will limit the ability of future out-of-area operations to accomplish the coalition’s goals.

Disciplines

International Relations | Political Science | Sociology

Subject Area

International relations; Sociology; Political science; Military studies; Public policy

Department

International Relations (INR)

First Advisor

Giannakos, Symeon

Second Advisor

Raymond, Chad

Third Advisor

Bradizza, Luigi

Date of Award

2026

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Ph.D.

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